I read something from Lyle where he said to find the point where you lose and use that. That could be as low as 8x, 9x, whatever. Or 12x, depending on an infinite array of factors that can't be figured out imo. The very experienced trainer I work with told me to swag it at about 2kcal/day and don't obsess, don't weigh or measure for a couple of months. Just keep pounding the workouts and eating right. Sounds like a similar story.
Maybe it's really just too dang simple for guys like us.
I've done all the same calcs and come up with the same spread. I eat a little more on lifting days, a little less on cardio days, less still on rest days. I'm just not that hungry anyway. If you are then eat, right?
You and I are doing roughly the same training schedule and you're a little taller and heavier than me so our numbers are about the same. If we are going pretty hard at it the fat will come down.
Are you tracking your lifts? Getting stronger? Feeling better? Then it's gotta work? At least that's what I keep telling myself.