Low-Carb Craze Leads to Declining Sales for Tacoma, Wash.-Area Bakers

By Barbara Clements, The News Tribune, Tacoma, Wash. Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News

Mar. 21 - It's just after the morning rush at Buns Master Bakery in Lakewood. A yeasty, warm smell wafts through the back shop as workers mold an elastic blob of dough into hoagie rolls for a commercial customer. Out front, the usual selection of cookies, muffins and loaf breads lines the counter. Near the entrance, in prime placement, are the newcomers -- low-carbohydrate loafs and rolls.

Owner Stephen Wurster first began offering the low-carb products about six months ago in response to customers pestering him for a loaf that would fit in their diet. Bread and other grain products are high in carbohydrates -- something Atkins diet devotees avoid.

Wurster estimated his business has slipped much as 20 percent since last year as many consumers have shunned bread in favor of low- or no-carb selections. He said he can't wait until low-carb goes the way of diet trends of the past.

He sees some reason for hope. The low-carb bread isn't flying off the shelf like it used to, he said. Customers aren't coming into his store as often bragging about the 50 pounds they've lost on the Atkins diet.

Other South Sound bakers and companies nationwide also say they've experienced a sales drop from the low-carb craze.

Robert Streeter of Harbor Bakery & Deli in Tacoma remembers selling up to 175 loaves of bread day at the bakery's former location in Gig Harbor. Sales are down to about six loaves a day at the store's home on Sixth Avenue.

Streeter was unsure whether to attribute the drop to the low-carb trend or the new location.

The National Bread Leadership Council reported 40 percent of Americans are eating less bread today than a year ago. The council held a summit last November, focusing in part on low-carb diets and how to tell the public that breaking bread is still part of a healthy lifestyle.

Gavin Jury, owner of a Tacoma commercial supplier, Baker Boys Northwest, said the trend has not affected his business, which is up slightly this quarter. He sells bread to restaurants such as The Spar and The Swiss.

"There have been a few requests (for low-carb bread), but we're not offering anything now," he said.

Low-carb bread is expensive to make, he said, and he isn't impressed with the taste. "Maybe this will pass," he said of the low-carb mania. "I think it will."

Jury echoes the thoughts of many in the baking industry -- as well as other food sectors that have ended up on the low-carb "do not patronize" list

"It's too bad that we just can't eat all the foods in moderation. But no, we have to do something dramatic all the time," said Judi Adams, president of the Wheat Foods Council and a registered dietitian. "We have to look for this magic bullet."

To highlight the healthy side of breads, the Foods Council put out a report that stressed the importance of folic acid, a nutrient generally added to white bread and other grain products such as pasta. Folic acid is key to preventing birth defects, such as spina bifida.

Estimates of the number of Americans on low-carb diets vary widely, from 5 million to 50 million.

Their avoidance of bread has exacerbated a sales trend for the $11 billion industry that was already worrisome before low-carb diets became popular, said John McMillin, a food industry analyst with Prudential Equity Group Inc. in New York.

"Meaningful declines are being seen for pasta, rice, crackers, cookies, frozen food and fresh bread," McMillin wrote in a food industry analysis in December.

McMillin's analysis of several sectors showed a decline in all wheat-product categories.

Information Resources Inc., a Chicago-based firm that tracks consumer trends, reported that unit sales of fresh bread have dropped by 1.7 percent during the last year. Sara Lee Bakery Group posted a 7.9 percent drop in unit sales, while General Mills saw a 23 percent plunge.

But not everyone thinks the baking industry is buckling under the low-carb onslaught.

"Contrary to what many have said, the baking industry is not toast," said Nicholas Pyle, president of the Independent Bakers Association.

While sales of white bread loaves are down a bit, many of his members report that low-carb bread offerings have made up the difference.

Low-carb bread -- selling at $3 and up a loaf, about twice the price of regular bread -- usually has a better profit margin than regular bread, he said.

"People are trying these breads," Pyle said. "Whether the craze has any staying power remains to be seen."

A employee at Gai's/Franz Bakeries wholesale store in Tacoma said the store's low-carb breads have been selling well since they appeared on the shelves two months ago.

This trend "really hasn't killed us," she said. "If anything, we're selling more bread overall."

Other parts of the food industry are hoping the fad is fading. Just in case it doesn't, industry leaders are making a rather belated attempt to fight back.

A.C. Nielsen reported a more than 7 percent decline in orange juice sales in a four-week period spanning January and February, when compared with the same period last year.

The Florida Citrus Commission decided early this month to begin a $6 million television ad campaign in April to reverse a three-year decline in orange juice sales -- a dip that citrus officials partially blame on low-carb diets because they severely restrict sugar intake.

Initially, the commission thought about running a negative campaign. One commercial, called "Grease," showed a man pouring fat from a skillet into a glass. He then poured orange juice into another glass.

"Some people think this is healthy (showing the glass of grease), while this is not," he said.

The ad tested negatively with focus groups and was scrapped.

The commission approved a more positive campaign, including a commercial called "Health Drink." It shows a man feeding rutabagas, liver, okra, brussels sprouts, a banana and four oysters into a blender, while explaining that this is the combination of foods a person would need to get the vitamins and minerals in a single glass of orange juice.

Another sector which has felt the disdain of carb-counting consumers is the potato industry. The United States Potato Board is undertaking a $4 million campaign to promote the lowly spud.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts per capita sales of fresh potatoes will remain flat at 45.4 pounds in 2004, according to the trade magazine Supermarket News. The Idaho Potato Commission is launching its own plan, one that will promote the nutritional aspect of potatoes, according to Frank Muir, president of the commission.

"The ads have a much more serious, informational tone than the ones with our mascot, Spuddy Buddy," he sa

"He sees some reason for hope. The low-carb bread isn't flying off the shelf like it used to, he said. Customers aren't coming into his store as often bragging about the 50 pounds they've lost on the Atkins diet."

Maybe it's because his bread is no good? or too expensive? Or there's a better place nearby?

As for OJ.....I never liked it and always felt guilty for not drinking it, because I thought it was "good" for me! It also causes severe indigestion....especially the more processed ones.

There are more things on LF I either can't eat or won't eat than there are on LC. So I have more choices to stick with this.

I just have to get over the "junk" wants. We all have them....but eating healthy means you give in a little now and again. I start off that way, but then I end up binging. I'm hoping after beining on this WOL for a while I'll be able to give myself treats from time to time without ending up on a binge. If I can't, I'll gladly give it up if I can eat the foods I eat now!

Off to make my asparagus and grilled beefsteak with cheese and tomato......yum.