A Reason to Love High Gas Prices (or not)

[kyrasdad]

Picked these articles up on a supposed relationship between high gas prices and obesity. The abstract (and downloadable paper) (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=982466#PaperDownload) are here.

Abstract:
Rising gasoline prices have become a major concern in the U.S. over the past few years. An increase in the cost of driving causes people to consider substitutes, such as walking and taking public transportation, both of which are likely to result in additional physical exertion. Since exercise is known to decrease body weight, it is possible that the recent escalation in gas prices will have the silver lining of reducing America's obesity rate. This has the potential to significantly improve public health since obesity, which is widely believed to be one of the leading causes of preventable deaths in the U.S., can lead to a number of diseases, such as heart disease and diabetes. I find that a $1 increase in real gasoline prices will, in the long run, lower the prevalence of obesity in the U.S. by 13% and save 15,000 lives and $16 billion per year. This drop in medical expenses would cancel out 15% of the additional expenditures on gasoline. I also find direct evidence that this effect occurs through increasing exercise, such as walking. Additionally, I estimate that 13% of the rise in obesity in the U.S. between 1979 and 2004 can be attributed to declining real gas prices during the period.

Of course, it's dubious. And the Reason.com (http://www.reason.com/blog/show/121210.html) blog takes it to task. Still, an interesting theory, if not a very valid one.

[Dodger]

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This thread has the potential to become political. Please keep the discussion about obesity and it's causes/fixes, not about gas prices and their causes/fixes.

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[Dodger]

I'm not sure how much gas prices would have to go up to get most people to quit driving short trips and start walking. I've asked a few people how high gas prices would have to go for them to quit driving by themselves to work and start car pooling or use public transportation and they admit that it would have to get above $10 a gallon. For a lot of people, high gas prices are just irritating and not worth changing their lifestyle over.

I have only driven my car during one week this year (a vacation). The rest of the time I bike or walk. I have been able to fix it within my lifestyle without any problems. My kids are grown and don't require transportation by me. I like cycling and so doing errands on a bike is not something for me to dread.

I do see more people walking back from stores (they have bags) than I used to, so there are some people who are getting healthier because of higher gas prices. I don't know if they are getting happier though.

[kyrasdad]

For me, it would be pretty difficult to reduce car use by very much, even if gasoline were twice its current price. Everyday stuff involves a work commute that's possible to bike (7 miles one way) in good weather, but kinda tough with a laptop, my lunch, and usually other stuff. I also have to pick up my daughter after work, meaning that I'd need to bike home, get the car, and go get her. That's not mentioning the dangerous condition a biker faces on my route (no trails, mostly roads, no shoulders). It just isn't feasible, and work commute makes up the biggest percentage of my driving.

I have gone to the store on my bike, but only for a thing or three. Mostly we go twice a month to get everything.

But having a 4-year old would make it tough to shed trips. We'd certainly work toward more walking and biking, but the economics would make it pretty difficult to really reduce.

However, I log about 10k miles a year on my car -- pretty low for most people.

[deirdra]

One way higher gas prices could reduce obesity is if more of the grain supply is used to make ethanol.

[pennink]

One way higher gas prices could reduce obesity is if more of the grain supply is used to make ethanol.


good point....

I drive a diesel... 1000 kms a tank (30 to 40 Canadian)

I think that's about 620 miles for about 45 bucks. I'm waiting for the bio-diesels to be more available.

Did using sugar cane in south america for fuel cut down on the sugar consumption?

[rightnow]

I *love* how he throws out such specific numbers!

This should be in the humor section. ;-)

[jwc]

HMMM... I'd love to walk or bike to work, but I commute about 800 miles (fly there for two weeks, then have 2 weeks at home). Walking might make me a bit late for my shift.

At home, my nearest grocery store is about 17 miles away. Walking or biking for groceries would probably be a very effective diet plan :lol:

[bsheets]

Oh I already started walking more about a year ago due to the petrol prices. I used to drive to the supermarket at the end of my street really because the bags can get very heavy (kitty litter is about 15kgs a bag plus anything else I buy) so now I just do several smaller shops. And one car trip every month or so where I buy lots of kitty litter at a time.

I definitely think it's works on people that can increase their incidental exercise slightly, but for those that are seriously obese, they'd probably just figure out a way around it.

e

[Lisa N]

The basic premise of the article is that if everyone walked more, the trend towards increasing weight would reverse itself. Exercise alone for the purpose of weight loss is not terribly effective. That has been shown time and time again. It may help increase overall fitness if it is done on a regular basis, which wouldn't be a bad thing in an of itself, but it won't do much for the obesity problem.

I estimate that 13% of the rise in obesity in the U.S. between 1979 and 2004 can be attributed to declining real gas prices during the period.

While real gas prices were supposedly declining during this period, the use of high fructose corn syrup in food products was skyrocketing. Which do you think is the more likely culprit for increasing weights? ;)

My 2 cents worth for this morning....

[Citruskiss]

I miss good transit. Sure, I drive - but I appreciate being able to jump on the bus and go somewhere without having to worry about parking/gas and so on. I also felt healthier when I was taking the bus regularly. Lots of times I'd just walk home rather than wait for the bus.

Sometimes I'd drive downtown (when I lived in a bigger city), park the car and spend the rest of the day on foot - and part of the reason for this was because 'downtown' wasn't exactly car friendly. And yet, it was *very* pedestrian friendly - lots of neat places in a several-block radius.

Where I live now - well, there's a lot of these big-box stores surrounded by massive parking lots. I don't feel like I can go from place to place on foot in this kind of scenario.

It's not just gas/driving - there's also things like climate and urban planning. A mild, temperate climate goes a long way towards encouraging more people to ride their bikes or just walk. As does a pedestrian-friendly city.

I just can't see myself hiking from Home Depot to Super Target in 100+ degree weather.

[pennink]

I know my husband, a native NYer, gained weight fast when he left NY to a suburban type of life with me.

If, in NY, he wanted his morning bagel he walked for it. He took the subway, and he walked and walked and walked. Just about killed my feet when I used to visit him.

So, imo, it's the way we live, clustered in little suburban islands, miles away from stores, schools, jobs, etc. that -- along with the corn-syrup, -starch, -additive, food most people eat is a fast route to an unhealthy life.

[jschwab]

"So, imo, it's the way we live, clustered in little suburban islands, miles away from stores, schools, jobs, etc. that -- along with the corn-syrup, -starch, -additive, food most people eat is a fast route to an unhealthy life."

It's just not practical for most people to walk, unfortunately. It requires planning and commitment. In my experience, people more readily go into debt to pay for gas than walk. I have a 4,2 and 7 month old and no car. It's alot easier, in my opinion, than doing the car seat shuffle but we live in the city and we have a lumber yard down the street. I've done the Home Depot to Target hike in hot weather - not pleasant but it didn't kill me, either.

Janine

[Mandra]

Somehow I just don't think it would be practical for me to bike the 62 km to work every morning.....

It's a 35 minute drive to the nearest public transportation.

It takes me 1 1/2 hours to walk to the main road (as I discovered when my car broke down and I had to hitchhike). One hour to bike to the nearest store.

Nope, not giving up my car.

[KvonM]

excuse me while i giggle at those of you complaining about hot weather... last week temperatures ranged from 107°-110°. and before anyone brings up humidity, i grew up in the midwest and spent 8 years on the east coast... i will GLADLY switch places with any of you right now. the desert thunderstorms may be beautiful, but the heat is driving me insane.

now that being said, i know that i should walk to the grocery store since it's all of 3 or 4 blocks from my house. i should walk to the nail salon and dunkin' donuts because they're about half a mile or so. i don't because i usually either have a lot of stuff i'm hauling back from the store, or because i don't want to show up at my destination drenched in sweat. as far as taking public transportation to work, it's not an option. i'd be driving almost as far to the bus stop to catch the one outgoing bus to my plant site as i would be to go straight to work, not to mention that the bus schedules don't allow for things like overtime or the need to run off-site errands.

when i lived in boston, i loved the public transportation system. it's annoying that i can't rely on the same thing here.

[kyrasdad]

Not to get too far into the political realm, but I think one thing that could be done -- that should be done -- is the spread of mass transit outside urban areas. It would not be impossible to create a system in a city of (say) 500,000 that made it possible to get within a mile of most homes. It would be expensive, but as gasoline prices skyrocket, many would use it. I've always been envious of the L-trains and subways I've been on. People read, use their laptops, and listen to music instead of fighting traffic. I'd be all over it, were it available where I live. There is a transit system, but it's very sparse and not very useful.

[ysabella]

Mass transit really can only work where population density will support it, though. People do vote for it, although it's usually because they assume other people will use it and then they'll have less traffic to drive in. :p It usually doesn't noticeably decrease traffic, but it does give people more options.

The other major consideration is walkability. I've lived in a lot of places where even if I did want to walk to the store, it was a very pedestrian-hostile environment - no sidewalk, no shoulder, or no crosswalks. Where I live now is borderline for walking but very good for biking. We have a very active local bike club who lobbies relentlessly, and we have a lot of excellent bike paths. There are a lot of groups campaigning for more walkable towns and cities. I would be happy to see this increase. Currently, most new development is planned around cars and nothing but cars.