PDA

View Full Version : How To Bury $400M


Welcome to the Active Low-Carber Forums

Support for Atkins diet, Protein Power, Neanderthin (Paleo Diet), CAD/CALP, Dr. Bernstein Diabetes Solution and any other healthy low-carb diet or plan, all are welcome in our lowcarb community. Forget starvation and fad diets -- join the healthy eating crowd! You may register by clicking here, it's free!



MyJourney
Fri, Jul-21-06, 00:31
http://www.thincs.org/Malcolm2006.htm#june11

June 11, 2006
How To Bury $400M

Once again, I get to tell you, “I told you so.” This time about the Women’s Health Initiative’s heart intervention study. Many will probably be familiar with this study by now. For those who are not, I have summarized it below.

48,835 women aged 50 to 79 included
Study lasted 8.1 years
Major intervention in diet (This was not a passive observational trial. This was a randomized, interventional, controlled clinical study involving almost 50,000 women. The gold standard.)
Those randomized to the intervention group were intensively counseled to reduce their daily fat intake to 20 percent of calories, to increase their intake of fruits and vegetables to at least five servings daily, and to increase grain consumption to at least six servings daily. By year six, the intervention group was consuming, on average, 29 percent of calories as fat, compared to 37 percent in the control group. The corresponding figures for saturated fat were 9.5 percent and 12.4 percent, respectively.

Findings

Among the study population as a whole, there were no significant differences in coronary heart disease (CHD) or stroke incidence, CHD or stroke mortality, or total mortality. In addition, the low-fat diet produced no reduction in the incidence or mortality rates of breast cancer, colorectal cancer, or total cancer either.

And what was the response?

“The results of this study do not change established recommendations on disease prevention. Women should continue to get regular mammograms and screenings for colorectal cancer, and work with their doctors to reduce their risks for heart disease including following a diet low in saturated fat, trans fat and cholesterol,” said National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Director Elizabeth G. Nabel, MD.

“This study shows that just reducing total fat intake does not go far enough to have an impact on heart disease risk. While the participants’ overall change in LDL “bad” cholesterol was small, we saw trends towards greater reductions in cholesterol and heart disease risk in women eating less saturated and trans fat,” said Jacques Rossouw, MD, WHI project officer. (We saw trends?)

Judy O'Sullivan, a cardiac nurse at the British Heart Foundation, said: "Numerous studies have confirmed there are huge heart benefits from maintaining a healthy lifestyle, which involves a balanced diet and regular physical activity. It is easy to identify a number of important reasons why this study did not agree with previous research.”

Now for my favorite quote: “There may have been some ‘disappointment’ that the studies didn't always give clear answers,” acknowledged Nabel, who is heart chief at the National Institutes of Health. "The findings are what they are…. Now we're in a second wave of putting the findings into perspective."

“Putting the findings into perspective.” I think we know what that means. That means completely ignoring them. Perhaps the findings merely represent a “paradox.” If not, I am sure that you can find plenty of other reasons to sweep this $400 million trial into the dustbin.

But you know, such findings hardly come as a surprise. My tardiness at responding to this study is primarily due to another project I am working on. As part of this project, I was looking through the statistics, produced by the World Health Organization, on saturated fat consumption and heart disease rates in 46 countries across Europe.

Below I have created two graphs. Graph one looks at countries with the lowest consumption of saturated fat, and compares this to their rate of heart disease. Graph two looks at the countries with the highest consumption of saturated fat, and compares this to the rate of heart disease. (All figures are from the MONICA study, all figures from 1998, or within two years of that date, when figures from 1998 were missing.)

http://www.thincs.org/image005.gif

http://www.thincs.org/image006.gif

I know that such graphs can be a little difficult to follow, and may lack impact. Here is a little summary:

The French consumed three times as much saturated fat as was consumed in Azerbaijan, and had one-eighth the rate of heart disease.
Every single country in the top eight of saturated fat consumption had a lower rate of heart disease than every single country in the bottom eight of saturated fat consumption.
And still we are told that a high saturated fat diet causes heart disease.

Thank you and goodnight.

DietSka
Fri, Jul-21-06, 04:04
Gotta love focusing on ONE factor... fat. It doesn't work when the anti-fat people blame it and it doesn't work when the pro-fat people praise it either.

The countries in the first graph are former Soviet block countries. Poor. Stressed. Inadequate medical care (people see the doctor when it's generally too late). Wheat and potatoes are staples. So is hard alcohol.

The countries in the second graph are Western Europe rich countries. Less stress. Better quality, less carby food -- they don't have to stretch meals. Less drinking (and then it's wine not vodka). Preventative medical care.

But it's the saturated fat. Yeah! :/

Angeline
Fri, Jul-21-06, 10:00
I had the same reaction as well. It's dumb to focus on a single element, as if all other factors don't count one bit.

If saturated fat really influenced heart disease more than any other factor, then there would be a clear correlation in all cases. But there isn't.

Another thing I noticed is they are tracking the death rate. It seems to me that in countries with access to better medical care, the death rate from heart disease would be less than in countries without. So that's another confounding factor. What about heart disease rates?

I think that heart disease is caused by several factors and they need to stop focusing on individuals ones and adopt a more holistic approach. This single-mindedness is symptomatic of everything that is wrong with health care and research. Obviously if you can single out a particular cause, you can develop a drug to influence that cause. You can patent it and sell it. You can't patent a holistic approach to treatment. So long as research is profit driven, our health care system will continue to be a disease management system, and a bad one at that.

arc
Fri, Jul-21-06, 13:06
Actually, if you read Dr. Kendrick's other writings, you would know that he knows heart disease has multiple factors and believes the worst is stress, particularly while or just after eating. The saturated fat graphs are in response to the spin people are trying to put on the WHI study and are in direct conflict with the Ancel Key "Seven Countries" study, which supposedly proved that saturated fat caused heart disease.

Malcolm Kendrick Essays (http://www.thincs.org/Malcolm.index.htm)