Leonid Gav
Wed, Apr-21-04, 06:11
Greetings,
May I bring your attention to 3 key scientific publications
["Classics of Longevity Science"], which first suggested a
quantitative theory of survival at extreme old ages. These
three pioneer publications are now available at:
http://longevity-science.org/Heterogeneity.html
These three scientific publications are the first to introduce
the idea of population heterogeneity (gamma-distributed
individual risk) to explain a logistic function for mortality
increase with age with subsequent late-life mortality
deceleration, mortality levelling-off, and mortality plateaus.
While reviewing scientific manuscripts for peer-reviewed
journals, and research proposals for funding agencies, I have
found that these three key publications are not known to many
authors/grant applicants -- hence here are the detailed
references with weblinks:
Beard, R.E. 1959. Note on some mathematical mortality
models. In:
G.E.W.Wolstenholme and M.O'Connor (eds.). The Lifespan of
Animals. Little, Brown, Boston, 302-311
http://longevity-science.org/Beard-1959.pdf
Beard, R.E. 1964 Some observations on stochastic process with
particular reference to mortality studies. International
Congress of Actuaries, vol.3, p.463-477
http://longevity-science.org/Beard-1964.pdf
Beard RE. 1971 Some aspects of theories of mortality, cause of
death analysis, forecasting and stochastic processes. In.
Biological aspects of demography (Brass W., Ed.), Taylor &
Francis, London 1971
http://longevity-science.org/Beard-1971.pdf
Hope it helps,
Kind regards,
-- Leonid Gavrilov Author of the book "The Biology of Life
Span" http://longevity-science.org/index.html#Book
May I bring your attention to 3 key scientific publications
["Classics of Longevity Science"], which first suggested a
quantitative theory of survival at extreme old ages. These
three pioneer publications are now available at:
http://longevity-science.org/Heterogeneity.html
These three scientific publications are the first to introduce
the idea of population heterogeneity (gamma-distributed
individual risk) to explain a logistic function for mortality
increase with age with subsequent late-life mortality
deceleration, mortality levelling-off, and mortality plateaus.
While reviewing scientific manuscripts for peer-reviewed
journals, and research proposals for funding agencies, I have
found that these three key publications are not known to many
authors/grant applicants -- hence here are the detailed
references with weblinks:
Beard, R.E. 1959. Note on some mathematical mortality
models. In:
G.E.W.Wolstenholme and M.O'Connor (eds.). The Lifespan of
Animals. Little, Brown, Boston, 302-311
http://longevity-science.org/Beard-1959.pdf
Beard, R.E. 1964 Some observations on stochastic process with
particular reference to mortality studies. International
Congress of Actuaries, vol.3, p.463-477
http://longevity-science.org/Beard-1964.pdf
Beard RE. 1971 Some aspects of theories of mortality, cause of
death analysis, forecasting and stochastic processes. In.
Biological aspects of demography (Brass W., Ed.), Taylor &
Francis, London 1971
http://longevity-science.org/Beard-1971.pdf
Hope it helps,
Kind regards,
-- Leonid Gavrilov Author of the book "The Biology of Life
Span" http://longevity-science.org/index.html#Book